Florian Bieber, director of the Center for the Study of Southeastern Europe at the University of Graz, said the question of whether the economic agreement will have a significant consequence during a second term of Trump depends in part on Grenell`s role. «If he doesn`t know, he could simply be abandoned by the Trump administration. Especially if they realize there`s not much to gain,» he told RFE/RL. At the same time, the continuation of Grenell`s commitment may not necessarily allow for strong cooperation between the United States and the EU under the peace agreement, said Bieber, who called Trump`s envoys in Brussels and Berlin «least popular American diplomats.» «This is not a good basis for dialogue,» he said. Trump`s disaffection with existing international agreements – such as the Paris climate change agreement and the Iran nuclear deal — could give hope to Balkan leaders, who raise the delicate issue of border changes if Trump wins a second term, Bieber said. John Bolton, Mr. Trump`s national security adviser from April 2018 to September 2019, said the idea had emerged, but Grenell said he had never talked about border change in his conversations with the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia. Biden`s victory on November 3 would «definitely bury» the idea of a radical overhaul of the post-war order in the Balkans, Bieber said. The two Prime Ministers signed a «First Agreement in Principle on the Normalisation of Relations» in Brussels.
The short 15-point text is the first bilateral agreement between Serbia and its former province; As the title suggests, it is unlikely to be the last. Oddly enough, no government published it, although a so-called authentic version quickly leaked to the Pristina press. «A kind of public relations event» Yet some regional analysts question the government`s commitment to deeply interfering in the complex policy of the Balkans. Some even see the white House signing ceremony as a desire for a foreign policy victory before the November election.